Saturday, January 10, 2004

Dean Unelectable? I am not so sure about that. Plus, bet on the election.
I love going back to my hometown of Canton, Ohio. The people are nice, things are cheap, and weather is repeatedly and predictably terrible. But two things make trip home very enjoyable - I get to see friends/family and I get to hear what average Americans (as opposed to average Californians) think about politics. Remember, as Ohio votes in political elections, so votes the nation (I think they have voted for the losing candidate only once in the last fifty years, and my hometown of Canton has been accurate even longer). And the obvious things that I saw when I was home were that (a) Cantonians are scared off by Dean and (b) Nobody thinks he can win.

The first point should be troubling for Democrats anywhere. Having your candidate being seen as an unstable extremist when you are trying to portray the president that way is not a good sign for them. The other point however, despite receiving quite a bit of press is overstated in my opinion. I THINK DEAN CAN WIN. That doesn't mean he will win, or is likely to win, just that HE CAN WIN. Why? Because you never know what will happen in an election. Bush may have a huge gaffe, or Dean may just upstage him at the debates. One thing I am calling here - Dean, if he gets the nomination, will significantly narrow or even close the gap between the candidates, and as he is doing so, the press will begin eagerly printing editorials to the effect of "Dean, once thought to be a long-shot, is now viewed as having an even chance of winning the general election." Just a prediction - I still think the guy will lose though.

Kristol, who is not anywhere close to being on the same side of the political aisle as where Dean has placed himself these days, has a dated editorial on this same idea that Dean can win here. Ramesh Ponru disagrees with Kristol's argument here.

I think Ponru misses the big point. Nobody knows the exact way a Dean upset would occur. Upsets usually don't occur in predictable ways. The real question is what the odds of such an upset are. Too bad the Iowa Electronic Market is not listing the odds of that matchup yet. About the last site - there you are able to bet on certain outcomes of the presidential election. It is a cool site, and I recommend you look at it.

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