Saturday, December 25, 2004

,Oh $#@%#$%!
This will make your day:
MORE to worry about: "So, in summary, there's a 1-in-233 chance of the worst disaster in recorded history happening on April 13, 2029, and a 232-in-233 chance of nothing happening. Have a nice day!"

Related thoughts here.

UPDATE: Uh-oh. The risk is now upgraded to 1/62.5, with a Torino scale of 4. (Via Liberty's Blog). This is moving out of the "isn't that interesting" range, and into the "isn't that worrisome" range.

ANOTHER UPDATE: The risk has been upgraded again, to 1 in 42.

MY UPDATE - Well the odds are now at 1 in 45. You can check yourself here. We'll know one way or another in the next few weeks whether this thing will hit. If it does, it will be a one and a half GIGATON blast (that is 30 times more powerful than any nuclear weapon ever detonated). So what does this mean? Obviously, if you are under the thing, you aren't going to make it. I've been trying to hunt down the formula for a blast radius. Two things I think I know at this point - as explosive power goes up, the radius of the blast does not go up as fast. I saw on the web that a Gig bomb would be about 190 mile blast radius, so I'll hedge for now and assume about a 210 mile radius. Also, there could be a difference if it explodes in the air (airburst) or on the ground. This isn't my field, I'm just trying to figure things out.

UPDATE - New data has made the risk neglible. Thank Goodness.

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