Saturday, November 06, 2004

More Bad News for Dems
Dems who are looking towards '06 need to face this point - it is likely that they will lose even more seats in the senate to republicans. Ellis Oster has the goods at GOP Strategery.

Surprised? You shouldn't be. Dems win a select few states that are rich in electoral votes. Repubs win a high number of low electoral vote states. Since more states are republican, the senate should with time, drift to be more heavily republican body if the current red-blue political alignment holds. How heavily? Well, as a rough measure, there are 31 red states, and 19 blue states which implies a natural equilibrium at around 60 senators for the repubs and 40 for the dems.

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