More on the Timken Plant Closing and its Effect on Elections
The San Jose Mercury has a piece on how the closing could affect the election. I am doubtful. The argument basically is this - that Canton, Ohio is the ultimate political bell weather, and the closing will make it more likely to lean Kerry, implying that Kerry will be significantly more likely to win the election
If that was the intended argument, then I disagree. A plant closing may make my hometown more likely to vote Kerry, but this only means that it becomes less of a bell weather unless their is a corresponding shift in the vote of the nation as a whole. Given how hard hit Canton is by the closing compared with the overall economic gains of the country, I find this argument more difficult to believe.
A more dangerous possibility however, is that Bush may be losing so much ground in Northeastern Ohio, that he will be unable to carry the state. Since this is one of the two or three states where the election will be decided (Ohio still has about 20 electoral votes, and is more up for grabs than Pennsylvania), this is a worry development indeed for Republicans.