A New Blogger to Take a Look At.
Ellis Oster, President of Cornell federalists, and insider to the National GOP (where he worked for several years) has joined the blogsphere. Let me put it this way - when I want to know what the scoop is - I call Ellis. You should bookmark his webpage for the future - I'm sure many others will as well.
Friday, November 05, 2004
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Why Did Bush Voters Choose Bush?
Mike Kass asked this question to the Bush-supporting-stanford-law community. Sean Hayes answered the call with this well-written explanation.
Ok, let me make sure i go through this properly:
I'll avoid a boring point-by-point of his programs that i like. Instead, I like to fashion myself a 9/11 Republican--i voted for Bush in 2000 (in CT, of all places), and wasn't really a big backer of the man. Just liked him a little more than Gore, who always (like Kerry), just struck me as a beltway insider. Bush is obviously one by lineage as well, but he hides it well.
9/11 really made me a gun-ho bush supporter. HBO had that "9 Innings From Ground Zero" special on a month ago, and one of the commentators summed it up perfectly, when talking about bush throwing out the first pitch: "He was my guy, my representative, and i've never felt like that before." This from a guy who didn't vote for him.
I felt the exact same way, the greatest thing i have ever seen on television was Bush's impromptu bullhorn speech at ground zero. You couldn't help but feel the president of the US was fighting for you specifically. Obviously, this doesn't translate to a lot of people from the west coast, but 9/11 affected my undergrad in a big way.
But "moral issues," to me just doesn't mean where life starts or what marriage is. Bush obviously has had his moments of truth stretching, but i don't think he ever deliberately lied to us. Kerry, on the other hand, consistently reeked of political opportunism. His constant Monday morning quarterbacking was becoming embarrassing. His answers on abortion were a joke--"I can't legislate from my belief"--but kerry would always say his faith affected everything else, just not that.
But the Swift Boat guys guaranteed that Kerry would never get my vote. I don't care if those guys gave money to Bush. I don't care if a lot of their funding came from a Bush supporter (who would it come from? Soros?). What bothered me more than anything was that here were 260 dudes with an opinion on Kerry, contrary to the opinion of Kerry's 12 supporters--and they can't speak without Tad Devine calling one of them "a bigot"? The press, Soros, the 527s went after Bush with all they had for 4 years, and a bunch of verterans aren't allowed to say, "hey, this guy isn't worthy of being president"???? Viewpoint discrimination at its finest.
Furthermore, as much as Kerry tried to turn Afghanistan into a failure, that is a remarkable success. Sure, we lost Osama and opium production is up, but we also installed a democracy in 3 years. Not bad.
Libya's disarmed, and regardless of kerry saying "we could've always had that," Bush still got it.
I don't think Presidents create jobs. They sure do like to take credit for them. Apparently Bill Clinton created the internet boom. They create situations where job growth is encouraged, and Kerry's 11th hour admission that he would tax corporations more sure wasn't going to do that. Most of you know I don't particularly care what economists think, so the fact that Jack Welch was practically stumping for Bush on the talk shows is enough for me.
Who doesn't!
There's the catch 22! Voted against every gun rights bill ever? Go shoot some geese! 100% pro choice rank? Talk about not legislating from faith! Against every conceivable American defense initiative and policy? Whore out your military service!
The problem is that the "more" Kerry could have done would have been seen as "more" of the same--John Kerry pandering for votes.
However, Emily makes a good point--if Kerry's "health care plan" had been more specific and understandable (it was synonymous with a tax hike, for heaven's sake), that might have given him a lot of credit.
Mike Kass asked this question to the Bush-supporting-stanford-law community. Sean Hayes answered the call with this well-written explanation.
Ok, let me make sure i go through this properly:
Why did you vote for Bush?
I'll avoid a boring point-by-point of his programs that i like. Instead, I like to fashion myself a 9/11 Republican--i voted for Bush in 2000 (in CT, of all places), and wasn't really a big backer of the man. Just liked him a little more than Gore, who always (like Kerry), just struck me as a beltway insider. Bush is obviously one by lineage as well, but he hides it well.
9/11 really made me a gun-ho bush supporter. HBO had that "9 Innings From Ground Zero" special on a month ago, and one of the commentators summed it up perfectly, when talking about bush throwing out the first pitch: "He was my guy, my representative, and i've never felt like that before." This from a guy who didn't vote for him.
I felt the exact same way, the greatest thing i have ever seen on television was Bush's impromptu bullhorn speech at ground zero. You couldn't help but feel the president of the US was fighting for you specifically. Obviously, this doesn't translate to a lot of people from the west coast, but 9/11 affected my undergrad in a big way.
Is it moral issues? If so, which ones, specifically?I generally stay away from the pro-choice debate, because i don't have ovaries. The marriage thing, however, i do have an opinion on, but its not even that, because we mostly knew that state initiatives, and not a federal amendment, were going to decide that.
But "moral issues," to me just doesn't mean where life starts or what marriage is. Bush obviously has had his moments of truth stretching, but i don't think he ever deliberately lied to us. Kerry, on the other hand, consistently reeked of political opportunism. His constant Monday morning quarterbacking was becoming embarrassing. His answers on abortion were a joke--"I can't legislate from my belief"--but kerry would always say his faith affected everything else, just not that.
But the Swift Boat guys guaranteed that Kerry would never get my vote. I don't care if those guys gave money to Bush. I don't care if a lot of their funding came from a Bush supporter (who would it come from? Soros?). What bothered me more than anything was that here were 260 dudes with an opinion on Kerry, contrary to the opinion of Kerry's 12 supporters--and they can't speak without Tad Devine calling one of them "a bigot"? The press, Soros, the 527s went after Bush with all they had for 4 years, and a bunch of verterans aren't allowed to say, "hey, this guy isn't worthy of being president"???? Viewpoint discrimination at its finest.
Do you believe he'll fight the terrorists more effectively and why?Yes, predominantly because Bush is going to let the fight be fought regardless of polls. We're going to destroy Fallujah in order to save it. Would Kerry have done that? Not if one country said no. I have faith that Iraq is going to turn around now.
Furthermore, as much as Kerry tried to turn Afghanistan into a failure, that is a remarkable success. Sure, we lost Osama and opium production is up, but we also installed a democracy in 3 years. Not bad.
Libya's disarmed, and regardless of kerry saying "we could've always had that," Bush still got it.
Do you believe Bush is better for the economy? Why?
I don't think Presidents create jobs. They sure do like to take credit for them. Apparently Bill Clinton created the internet boom. They create situations where job growth is encouraged, and Kerry's 11th hour admission that he would tax corporations more sure wasn't going to do that. Most of you know I don't particularly care what economists think, so the fact that Jack Welch was practically stumping for Bush on the talk shows is enough for me.
Do you simply want to have lower taxes in the short term?
Who doesn't!
Finally, is there anything more Kerry could have done, while remaining at least a moderate Democrat and retaining his personality and personal history, that would have swayed your vote?
There's the catch 22! Voted against every gun rights bill ever? Go shoot some geese! 100% pro choice rank? Talk about not legislating from faith! Against every conceivable American defense initiative and policy? Whore out your military service!
The problem is that the "more" Kerry could have done would have been seen as "more" of the same--John Kerry pandering for votes.
However, Emily makes a good point--if Kerry's "health care plan" had been more specific and understandable (it was synonymous with a tax hike, for heaven's sake), that might have given him a lot of credit.
Waiting on Ohio's Votes
130,566 votes seperate Bush from Kerry in Ohio, but the Kerry campaign wants to wait until the provisional votes are counted. With only a few counties remaining to be included in the total, there are only 135,149 provisional votes. However, Summit county (which includes Akron) and several other small counties have not submitted their provisional totals. Don't expect them to significantly push the number higher. Cuyahoga County, which is much larger, only had 24,788 provisionals. So maybe there is 160,000-140,000 provisionals - but even then many of them will be thrown out, and those that remain will be split by some indeterminate proportion between the two, but Kerry would have to win close to 100% of those votes to close the gap (assuming enough provisionals don't get thrown out to make the gap impossible to close). So for Kerry to win the following must happen
1) Get a lot of provisional votes from the few remaining counties
2) Hope that an extremely large percentage (maybe 90% - depends on how many more provisionals are found) of these votes don't get thrown out
3) Hope that the provisionals break almost 10 to 1 (or higher if not a lot remain after being eliminating the invalid counties) for Kerry
4) Hope that this pulls the race close enough for a recount, which could possibly make up the difference
5) Hope that in the event of such a recount, rumors of massive fraud in key democrat cities designed to raise Kerry's vote total don't turn out to be true, or at least demonstratable.
Is all this possible? Of course! But technically speaking, it is all always possible that if you take a 1000 monkeys, give them typewriters and several years, one of them will compose by random hitting of the keys the complete works of shakespear.
But being an ohioan who has suffered from the drive, the fumble, jose mesa's game 7 implosion, a myriad of michael jordan last minute shots, I don't like this possible thing, no matter how long the odds are. With that in mind, I have to keep reminding myself - patience, patience.
130,566 votes seperate Bush from Kerry in Ohio, but the Kerry campaign wants to wait until the provisional votes are counted. With only a few counties remaining to be included in the total, there are only 135,149 provisional votes. However, Summit county (which includes Akron) and several other small counties have not submitted their provisional totals. Don't expect them to significantly push the number higher. Cuyahoga County, which is much larger, only had 24,788 provisionals. So maybe there is 160,000-140,000 provisionals - but even then many of them will be thrown out, and those that remain will be split by some indeterminate proportion between the two, but Kerry would have to win close to 100% of those votes to close the gap (assuming enough provisionals don't get thrown out to make the gap impossible to close). So for Kerry to win the following must happen
1) Get a lot of provisional votes from the few remaining counties
2) Hope that an extremely large percentage (maybe 90% - depends on how many more provisionals are found) of these votes don't get thrown out
3) Hope that the provisionals break almost 10 to 1 (or higher if not a lot remain after being eliminating the invalid counties) for Kerry
4) Hope that this pulls the race close enough for a recount, which could possibly make up the difference
5) Hope that in the event of such a recount, rumors of massive fraud in key democrat cities designed to raise Kerry's vote total don't turn out to be true, or at least demonstratable.
Is all this possible? Of course! But technically speaking, it is all always possible that if you take a 1000 monkeys, give them typewriters and several years, one of them will compose by random hitting of the keys the complete works of shakespear.
But being an ohioan who has suffered from the drive, the fumble, jose mesa's game 7 implosion, a myriad of michael jordan last minute shots, I don't like this possible thing, no matter how long the odds are. With that in mind, I have to keep reminding myself - patience, patience.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
The Risk Is Called Bush
From today's "Der Standard:"
(By the way, Der Standard is not the only newspaper I have been checking on, it is simply a coincidence that I mostly chose articles from that paper.)
"American politics are a phenomenon: After four years during which the USA survived the bloodiest terrorist attack in its history, two wars and one radical change of direction in its budget policy, during which approvement ratings ranged from 40 to 90 percent, public opinion is exactly the same as it was in November 2000. (...)
There is much suspense on its way after the elections - especially if Bush is the winner. Usually, the current president is a well-known person and the challenger unfamiliar. This time, it is the other way around. We more or less know what Kerry's presidency will look like. With intellectuality, pragmatism and occasional dilatoriness, Kerry's Democrats will make their way through the minefield that is Iraq and the Republican Congress without major accidents. Whether or not Kerry increases the military presence in Iraq or initiates a troup cut-back, whether or not he will raise taxes at home or lessen the misery that is public health care is ultimately dependent upon factors that are out of his control. The world can follow Kerry's thinking and roughly knows how he is wired.
Nobody can say what Bush II will bring the safety-hungry Americans. Last time, the Texan threw all expectations overboard. Once in office, the compassionate conservative, who had criticized Bill Clinton for his actions overseas, became a radical revolutionary. However, the second terms of American presidents have often proved to be a time of moderation. (...)
Such a change could also occur after Bush's reelection: His leeway for new military adventures has been considerably reduced by the Iraq fiasco, the aggressive unilateralism has lately made room for some more friendly signals towards allies; and, given the gigantic budget deficit, lowering taxes has become almost impossible. Maybe Bush will let Donald Rumsfeld go and discover his new love for climate protection.
However, a lot indicates that he will regard winning the elections as God's stamp of approval on his politics and an instruction to continue. Less in foreign policy - when it comes to Iran, even hardliners avoid unilateral military action - more at home. There are still some remains of a welfare state that can be dismantled, the retirement system maybe; (...); abortion is still legal and the separation of church and state is still intact. For the extreme right, the USA is still a land dominated by godless liberals and left redistributers that needs to be liberated.
Revolutionaries are unpredictable. Even more so when they believe that a higher power speaks through them."
From today's "Der Standard:"
(By the way, Der Standard is not the only newspaper I have been checking on, it is simply a coincidence that I mostly chose articles from that paper.)
"American politics are a phenomenon: After four years during which the USA survived the bloodiest terrorist attack in its history, two wars and one radical change of direction in its budget policy, during which approvement ratings ranged from 40 to 90 percent, public opinion is exactly the same as it was in November 2000. (...)
There is much suspense on its way after the elections - especially if Bush is the winner. Usually, the current president is a well-known person and the challenger unfamiliar. This time, it is the other way around. We more or less know what Kerry's presidency will look like. With intellectuality, pragmatism and occasional dilatoriness, Kerry's Democrats will make their way through the minefield that is Iraq and the Republican Congress without major accidents. Whether or not Kerry increases the military presence in Iraq or initiates a troup cut-back, whether or not he will raise taxes at home or lessen the misery that is public health care is ultimately dependent upon factors that are out of his control. The world can follow Kerry's thinking and roughly knows how he is wired.
Nobody can say what Bush II will bring the safety-hungry Americans. Last time, the Texan threw all expectations overboard. Once in office, the compassionate conservative, who had criticized Bill Clinton for his actions overseas, became a radical revolutionary. However, the second terms of American presidents have often proved to be a time of moderation. (...)
Such a change could also occur after Bush's reelection: His leeway for new military adventures has been considerably reduced by the Iraq fiasco, the aggressive unilateralism has lately made room for some more friendly signals towards allies; and, given the gigantic budget deficit, lowering taxes has become almost impossible. Maybe Bush will let Donald Rumsfeld go and discover his new love for climate protection.
However, a lot indicates that he will regard winning the elections as God's stamp of approval on his politics and an instruction to continue. Less in foreign policy - when it comes to Iran, even hardliners avoid unilateral military action - more at home. There are still some remains of a welfare state that can be dismantled, the retirement system maybe; (...); abortion is still legal and the separation of church and state is still intact. For the extreme right, the USA is still a land dominated by godless liberals and left redistributers that needs to be liberated.
Revolutionaries are unpredictable. Even more so when they believe that a higher power speaks through them."
Black. All in Black.
Yes it is early. Yes the midday exit poll gap between Bush and Kerry was skewed against the Republicans. Yes this will not be decided for quite some time and is still too close to call. I don't care. I'm pessimistic, and putting on all black for the rest of the day. If Bush pulls ahead, then I'll look at my outfit, remember the feeling of dejection I had mid-day, and feel all the better.
Yes it is early. Yes the midday exit poll gap between Bush and Kerry was skewed against the Republicans. Yes this will not be decided for quite some time and is still too close to call. I don't care. I'm pessimistic, and putting on all black for the rest of the day. If Bush pulls ahead, then I'll look at my outfit, remember the feeling of dejection I had mid-day, and feel all the better.
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